Beyond Borders: Adapting to Climate-Driven Migration in East Africa
Environmental migration is an issue that is commonly presented as “new” or as part of “future trends”. Yet, it is an old-standing phenomenon, as the history of the debate shows in the article “Laws of Migration”. Environmental factors indeed ranked highly in the first systematic theories of migration. The evolving environmental landscape is also reshaping human migration patterns worldwide. Climate-induced migration is an increasingly pressing issue in many African regions, as rising temperatures and extreme weather events have caused the displacement of vulnerable populations. This is especially so in Eastern Africa and the Horn of Africa, particularly Kenya and Ethiopia, where extreme weather events have led to rangeland degradation, crop failures, water shortages, and food insecurity. This article, therefore, delves deeply into exploring migration as an adaptation strategy in the context of climate change.
Understanding Climate Migration
When effectively managed, migration can serve as a sustainable adaptation approach to mitigate severe climate and environmental changes while significantly contributing to a nation's economic development. However, unmanaged migration can also have significantly negative impacts on the migrants, their families and community as well as environmental repercussions for areas of origin and areas of destination. East Africa is experiencing a significant increase in temperatures, with the rate of warming accelerating over recent decades. The World Meteorological Organisation's "State of the Climate in Africa 2022" report highlights that weather and climate-related hazards are becoming more severe, exacerbating the vulnerability of communities in the region.
Climate migration in East Africa is driven by droughts, flooding, and land degradation, forcing communities to relocate, mostly internally. Conflict-induced displacement, on the other hand, stems from political instability and resource-based violence, often leading to cross-border movements. The two forms of displacement are increasingly intertwined as climate change exacerbates resource scarcity and triggers conflict. Climate change also intensifies competition over water and grazing lands, sparking local conflicts. Legal frameworks currently lack provisions for climate migrants, complicating protection efforts. Addressing both types of displacement requires integrated policies for resilience and adaptation.
Climate Change Drivers in East Africa
Climate change in East Africa is significantly altering drought patterns and contributing to water scarcity. The region has experienced more frequent and prolonged droughts, disrupting rainfall cycles and depleting water sources like rivers and lakes. This has led to severe water shortages affecting agriculture and human consumption. Simultaneously, flooding and extreme weather events, driven by changing precipitation patterns and global warming, have become more intense and unpredictable. Seasonal rains often arrive with greater force, triggering flash floods that devastate communities, displace populations, and destroy infrastructure.
Agricultural output, reliant on continuous rainfall, is increasingly jeopardised by climate change, resulting in widespread food poverty, particularly in Ethiopia. Failed harvests and livestock losses are common during prolonged droughts, while floods often wash away crops and erode soil. Additionally, ecosystem degradation and biodiversity loss are accelerating as climate change disrupts natural habitats and alters the distribution of species. Wetlands are shrinking, forests are thinning, and desertification is spreading, further endangering food supplies and local livelihoods, which is evident in Somalia. These changes underscore the urgent need for climate adaptation measures to build resilience in East African communities.
Case Studies in Somalia
Somalia faces the dual threats of conflict and climate disasters, and when these factors interact, risks emerge that overburden its nascent state institutions. 47% of the country’s population is affected by conflict, floods, drought, disease outbreaks such as cholera and measles and displacement that disrupt lives and livelihoods, resulting in humanitarian needs. Climate change continues to be a challenge that exerts constraints on the livelihoods that Somalis depend on. In Somalia, rain-fed agriculture and livestock herding are the mainstay of the economy. Rain-fed agriculture depends on a stable climatic pattern; thus, it is vulnerable to extreme weather events. These livelihoods are at stake, and the impact of climate change and variability may hinder the country from meeting the developmental targets identified in the National Development Plan (NDP-9) and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The figures recorded by UNHCR, the UN Refugee Agency, show that over 408,000 people were displaced by floods engulfing their villages and another 312,000 people by ravaging drought. Most fled to the regions of Hiraan in central Somalia and Gedo, in southern Somalia. Many of those forced to flee are arriving in overcrowded urban areas and sites already hosting internally displaced people. This places immense strain on already overstretched resources and exposes vulnerable people to increasing protection risks such as evictions, family separation and gender-based violence. Food, shelter, and protection services, including child protection and prevention of gender-based violence, are among people’s urgent needs.
Finding durable solutions to forced displacement requires the engagement of various institutions. In recognition of this, in October 2019, an important coordination mechanism was established in line with the Global Compact for Migration (GCM), and national policies called the National Durable Solutions Secretariat. Its role is to serve as the coordinator for all durable solutions initiatives in the country. Somalia has taken strides to implement a UNFCCC National Programme of Action. In 2013, Somalia developed the National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) to identify priority activities that respond to its urgent and immediate climate-related needs. Somalia also adopted the National Climate Change Policy (NCCP) in 2020 to guide the country’s adaptation and mitigation efforts at the national and sub-national levels. The Berghof Foundation in Somalia has successfully conducted climate-security and conflict transformation workshops with regional government actors as well as with local civil society activists who have become part of their Insider Peacebuilder Networks in Galmudug and Hirshabelle. This has been done by conducting extensive climate risk assessments with the communities and creating public spaces for dialogue to explore solutions for chronic violence.
Socioeconomic and Political Impacts
Climate-induced migration in East Africa significantly impacts urban infrastructure, gender dynamics, resource conflicts, and economic stability. Rapid urbanisation driven by climate migrants overwhelms cities like Nairobi and Dar es Salaam, straining housing, water, and sanitation services. Informal settlements expand, increasing vulnerability to floods and disease outbreaks due to poor infrastructure. Women and girls face unique challenges during climate migration; they often bear the burden of household responsibilities while men migrate for work. This shift exposes them to gender-based violence, limits access to education, and deepens economic disparities, as traditional gender roles restrict their mobility and decision-making.
The movement of climate migrants also intensifies competition over scarce resources like water and arable land, sparking conflicts, particularly in border regions such as Ethiopia and Kenya. Tensions over water rights and grazing land have escalated into violence, deepening socio-political instability. Economically, migration affects both origin and destination communities—origin areas suffer from labour shortages and reduced productivity, while urban areas struggle with job scarcity and increased demand for services.
However, economic integration of migrants can boost local economies by filling labour shortages, contributing skills, and stimulating demand for goods and services in host communities. Addressing these issues requires policies that strengthen urban planning, promote gender equality, manage resource conflicts, and support economic integration for migrants.
Policy Responses and Adaptation Strategies
East Africa is actively implementing a range of policy responses and adaptation strategies to address the challenges posed by climate-induced migration. Regional coordination efforts, such as the East African Community (EAC) Climate Change Policy and Master Plan, aim to harmonise climate adaptation and migration policies across member states, facilitating cross-border cooperation and resource sharing. Nationally, countries like Kenya, Ethiopia, and Rwanda have developed frameworks that integrate climate resilience into agricultural and food security policies, though challenges remain in aligning budgeting and implementation processes. International assistance programs, such as the Africa Adaptation Acceleration Program (AAAP), provide financial and technical support to bolster climate adaptation efforts, focusing on infrastructure development and capacity building.
At the community level, localised adaptation strategies are being employed to enhance resilience against climate impacts. In Kenya's refugee-hosting counties, Garissa and Turkana, initiatives like the Dadaab Chapter Refugee Voices raise awareness of the risks of climate change and how communities can adapt in their local context. Additionally, projects such as the Locally Led Climate Fund (LLCF) pilot project focus on practical grassroots projects and enhancing communities’ advocacy skills.
Future Outlook and Recommendations
Climate projections indicate that East Africa will experience increased climate-induced migration due to rising temperatures, erratic rainfall, and more frequent extreme weather events. By mid-century, climate change could drive up to 10% of all African cross-border migration, with Southern Africa seeing significant increases in mobility due to climate impacts. To address this, policy recommendations include integrating climate considerations into migration policies, enhancing regional coordination, and investing in infrastructure to support displaced populations. Only with bold, coordinated action can East Africa transform climate-driven migration from a crisis into an opportunity for sustainable growth and resilience.
